This is a really timely post for me. I just bought a new car last weekend. I also used to work in retail so I know a thing or two about how it works.
After searching at about 15 dealerships within 300 miles of me I got an idea of what the lowest price was. They always have their "sale price after discounts" and also lures like a button that says "click for e-price" which is their way of establishing contact with you, and which usually drops it by around $100 more. But in the end they have a bottom line and if you cross shop and negotiate and push a bit you can really get a deal.
In retail (I was a manager in operations at the mall) items hit the salesfloor and before long, if not immediately, end up "on sale". It's the New Years Sale, then it's the Easter Sale, then Summer sale, then Memorial Day sale...and so on. The signs keep changing but the price stays about the same, usually 20-40% off or more. It was crazy in the 5 years I did that to watch the department managers swap signs so often though the price didn't change much.
Cars are the same...they have a number they want and they'll use your trade or this incentive or holiday or whatever to get there. End of the year is a bit different though because they're trying to get rid of old inventory (a "new" 2019 model doesn't seem new when it's still on the salesfloor next to a new 2020 model). So in that case they are a bit more aggressive.
In my case I called around, learned what the lowball number was, got a written "out the door" quote, then found the color I wanted, offered that dealer (80 miles away) the price, they said no, I hung up, 5 minutes later they called and said they'd do it. In my case I got what I wanted for about 18% off the M.S.R.P. + all fees + taxes price which is a pretty staggering deal. I'd cross shopped the same car used and it would have only been about 23% off the new price. In our case that was only $4000 savings...then it came down to do I want to pay $4k less for a car that's been used and has one year less warranty and 15,000 miles or spend a bit more and get a car with 20 miles. We went the latter route.
The bottom line of what I'm saying is when it comes to cars in most cases you can walk in and name your price. They negotiate around you, not the other way around. Get an estimate on the car plus taxes plus dealer/destination/titling fee, then negotiate your "out the door price" and walk if they refuse. I've done this every time I've bought from a dealer and I always end up paying way under their asking price.
The M.S.R.P. on the
window sticker was $49k and change...+TTT
Their internet "rock bottom Christmas price" was $42.5k...+TTT
We got the car right at $40k +TTT
So by negotiating we saved $2.5k.